We are cursed to live in interesting times in gaming. Things are chaotic, and the industry could go in any one of a million directions. Eli Hodapp talked recently about how he sees signs of console/desktop publishers making new, more concerted mobile efforts. Dedicated gaming hardware is in decline and its possible death throes. The way games are bought and sold is changing as digital distribution and the internet continues to be the biggest shock to media since the invention of the printing press. Established publishers and developers are shifting focus. Independent developers don’t know if it’ll still be possible to make a living off of their games. Everything’s a mess and it could all change tomorrow. It can be easy to see the way that gaming has changed recently, and the direction that you might see it going, and fret about it. I agree, things are chaotic and unpredictable right now. But here’s what? As a fan of mobile gaming in particular? Don’t worry about it. So many signs point to possible futures where free-to-play is widespread but more palatable to enthusiast gamers than ever; where big publishers help innovate and expand mobile gaming beyond its current state; where mobile gets to pick up where dedicated hardware leaves off; and where our backlogs continue to expand until the sun engulfs us all. Everything is going to be okay!
First off, yes, free-to-play is inevitable. We saw what the pricing race to the bottom did for mobile: it led to free-to-play when most people no longer needed to spend money up front on games. Steam sales, console flash sales, premium membership freebies…these are all portents that I’ve seen before. Prices start to fall, and soon, trying to make money off of free stuff takes hold. I believe that most major publishers will focus on free-to-play in the coming years. It just makes too much sense in an age where consoles are declining, and it’s harder to stand out if you require payment up front.
But by that point, free-to-play won’t be the same. The model keeps evolving and shifting, even though the top games on mobile are still somewhat static. That’s a function of marketing dollars; expect a ton of mobile game ads during Super Bowl 50. There’s a lot of old faces that are coming in to shake up mobile. Those publishers like Nintendo, Konami, NIS, and Square Enix that all announced a new mobile focus? They’re experienced gaming companies that might just be willing to try new things as they have the resources to do so.
We’ve seen what Injustice (Free) has done. That’s from NetherRealm, the freaking Midway veterans who made Mortal Kombat! A console gaming developer managed to tweak the CCG genre and add in mobile-friendly fighting, along with top-notch production values. And they made a ton of money off of it. And it’s a formula that has worked with WWE Immortals (Free) and Mortal Kombat X (Free) too, not to mention Marvel Contest of Champions (Free) from Kabam. And while these fighting games are simplified from console versions, it’s not a dumbed-down formula. It’s just designed to fit on mobile. Old horses can learn new tricks.
Many of these companies jumping into mobile are going to have great franchises and great talent that they can leverage into unique spins on mobile games. Companies who focus on mobile are the ones who dominate it. There are plenty of experienced people who understand the platform and the market who can help developers and publishers in their transition to mobile. Combined with established players that know how to make great games coming in, I think there’s plenty of reason to get excited. More mobile games being made means there’s more games in the pipeline – and some of those will be great.
Just because you don’t like what free-to-play is right now doesn’t mean you will in a year or two or five from now. Many people who say they hate free-to-play often have that one or two games that they like anyway, like Hearthstone (Free). I think that more “buts" like that are coming. Remember that free-to-play is still relatively new as a mainstream way of making money off of games. New tactics, and even old ones are in use. Old-school banner ads and short commercials are finding ways to make developers money, if they get the downloads. Consumable IAP tactics vary from game-to-game, even though they have similar structures. Nintendo is committing to trying to make money off of a lot of people, not just whales. And if there’s anyone that could make something unorthodox work, it’s them, right? I believe as more free-to-play games are made, we’ll see new and more clever ways to monetize – and I believe a way that pleases core gamers will be found.
Even existing models that don’t work on mobile might someday pan out. The MOBA model of “no pay-to-win" has yet to succeed on mobile, but I think it could with the right game that engenders enough of a following to make it work. Something that gets players to care about the culture surrounding the game like Dota 2 or League of Legends is coming. There’s too many people who own mobile devices for a game like that to not work. I’m really high on Call of Champions, but maybe it won’t be a MOBA at all. Maybe some raiding-strategy game finds a Twitch audience and becomes an eSports sensation? Heck, Hearthstone kind of already counts as a mobile game that’s popular among the Twitch and eSports crowd. And for core gamers, that vocal anti-F2P crowd, who knows, maybe someone finds a way to get people to buy full game unlocks at a reliable rate. Crazier things have happened!
Another thing to realize about free-to-play is that it’s driving bigger, more complicated, and more challenging games. Flappy Bird of course brought in loads of incredibly challenging games, in an age where big console games are getting easier, it seems. Dark Souls and Bloodborne are exceptions to the rule. Clash of Clans (Free) is a complicated game of base-building, resource management, and teamwork, and it’s still light-years ahead of the advanced physics course that is Game of War (Free), which revels in how advanced it is – and has the technology to boot. And say what you want about Candy Crush Saga (Free), but it has people tackling hundreds of fiendish puzzles requiring thought and planning to do well at.
MOBAs, while not financially viable on mobile (yet), are inordinately complex and intricately-balanced games. I think they pretty much only took off as lucrative phenomenons because anyone could experiment in them without cost. If you analyze what’s been coming out, free-to-play hasn’t dumbed down games at all. And even pay-up-front games like Destiny and Helldivers on consoles? You see the free-to-play influence in them, with things like leveling, loot, and bite-size mission structures. The influence of free-to-play and its genres, like MMOs, are spreading.
I think that by 2020, most if not all major publishers will focus on free-to-play, and they will be on mobile or they will die. It will just make too much sense. Why try to sell a game to a few million people when you could sell to a billion and growing. And especially if console sales might fall 50% generation-over-generation? All the signs point to consoles being in decline. Mobile devices are getting ever more powerful, PC gaming is somehow growing and possibly making an entrance in the console market. What we see as dedicated gaming machines could die.
The idea of dedicated gaming hardware makes less and less sense as time goes on. Powerful mobile devices are in people’s pockets and bags, with them all the time, instead of tethered to a TV. We can have amazing gaming experiences wherever we are, and they’re accessible to audiences that had no interest in gaming before. Gaming isn’t just about the enthusiasts, we’re just a part of the equation. So of course there will be attempts to reach out to these massive new audiences.
But I don’t think that big games for enthusiasts, flush with disposable income, will go away. Big-budget games probably won’t die. If anything, it’s possible that technology will finally catch up to game streaming services, and make it unnecessary to own a dedicated console or a capable PC to play games. You could play the next big blockbuster anywhere you have a controller, and mobile devices could handle them with ease. Gamepads or haptic feedback would have to advance in availabiliy, and the reliability and speed of internet connections for game streaming is always a question. But these are not pie-in-the-sky wishes, but issues that technological advances can solve. Right now, you can enjoy countless games without needing a console – and soon you might not need one at all, and might miss out on nothing. You think Playstation Now, Sony’s game streaming service, is just going to stream Playstation 3 games to PS4s and Vitas? You don’t think it’s Sony preparing for a post-console future? If you do, you’re a fool. OnLive was like the N-Gage: not a bad idea, just ahead of its time and a flawed execution.
Let’s say you despise free-to-play with every fiber of your being. Perhaps you’re wary about a F2P-centric and mobile-first future because it’s going to kill paid games. The bad news is that a lot of games that would be paid will go free-to-play. But here’s the catch: I think paid games will exist as a successful niche for many developers. It’ll be a rounding error in the grand scheme of things like it is now on mobile, don’t get me wrong. But plenty of indies and possibly even mid-size developers who want to just sell you a game upfront will still want to do so. You have plenty of friends in the industry who hate free-to-play as much as you do.
Maybe the big names won’t make the paid games you’re used to. So what? We’ve seen many of these upstarts and independent studios fill in gaps that the publishers have left. Konami won’t make Castlevania games any more? No problem, we’ve got dozens of indie Metroidvanias, and Igarashi can get millions for Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night. Demand for niche things that aren’t worth the big companies’ time can and will be made.
And with more games going digital, the market for smaller studios’ games may still be growing. The playing field is far more level on digital marketplaces since they’re so accessible for any developer to distribute on now. And I think mobile gaming will ultimately benefit. As mainstream companies go mobile, they’ll start to bring more core players to the platform. Gamers will go where the games are. And I think ,many of those paid-friendly indies, will come back to a possibly-healthier platform, despite many going for the seemingly-greener pastures of PC and console game development. Things are rough right now on mobile, but they could look better soon.
And don’t forget: we live in an era of multiplatform development tools. Developers can make games for every device under the sun with Unity, Unreal, Game Maker, and other engines. Some of them will still make mobile games just because they can do so at a small risk.
Outside forces could have an impact. iOS is still the dominant force among mobile gaming, particularly for enthusiasts. There’s a reason that Touch Arcade’s banner says it’s keeping you in touch with the latest in iOS gaming, and not Android gaming, or even just “mobile gaming." Android I think has already had an influence on making free-to-play the dominant payment model on mobile. But perhaps Microsoft makes powerful tablet gaming a thing with their Surfaces and Windows tablets, forcing Apple to push the iPad’s power further, and creating a demand for games that push tablet hardware specifically. I believe people will be willing to pay more, and up front, for great tablet experiences. It will require a push beyond the current status quo where 99% of the games are built for phones and tablets despite tablets having the benefit of greater power and bigger screens. What we define as a ‘mobile’ game could radically change. It could become about ‘phone’ games and ‘tablet’ games, at last. The iPad is underutilized as a great gaming device, and I’d love to see true tablet gaming take off.
Perhaps, just as more core gamers shift to mobile as dedicated hardware dies off, publishers and developers will make more games that try to suit their wants on mobile. Enthusiasts will spend money if you give them a reason to spend it. And they’ll spend money on free-to-play games, and watch them on Twitch, and talk about them endlessly. Just give them a reason to do so. If more and more play their games on mobile, they’ll start to do those things with mobile games.
But the ultimate reason why I think you shouldn’t worry about the future of gaming? There’s going to be so many games that you could ignore everything you don’t like. The people who say that 99% of mobile games are terrible miss out on the fact that there are over 350,000 games on the App Store alone. 3500 quality games in the last 7 years? Mobile gaming is my life and I haven’t come close to playing all those quality games, much less the ones on PC and consoles that I’ve missed out on! I don’t think we appreciate how big gaming is. Because it’s possible for some schmuck in their apartment to make the next great game with off-the-shelf equipment and software, there’s always going to be something new and great to play. And there’s always going to be someone who doesn’t want to play by the established rules. Innovative games are still coming. Change is inevitable, but we live in a time of unlimited supply. Even if you’re the harshest, most strict gaming zealot, you can find plenty of ways to occupy your time. And you will next year, and the year after that, and the decade after that.
That’s the real curse of our times: there’s too many interesting games to play! And I see nothing in the future, especially as technology spreads and new groups of people can make games, to say that we won’t all go to our graves with massive backlogs of games we never got around to playing. Gaming is changing, and it could become anything, but there’s a bright future full of awesome games no matter where you look.
