Digi-Capital sees a bright future for mobile games in the next few years. The firm predicts that mobile gaming revenue will hit $29 billion this year, increase to $45 billion by 2018, as gaming software reaches $88 billion this year, and $110 billion in 2018. Do the math: that means that mobile gaming is possibly going to encompass a bigger portion of the gaming revenue pie in the coming years.
Asia is predicted to be the key market for mobile gaming, with over half of the revenue on mobile coming from there. So if you like your Korean, Chinese, and Japanese RPGs, then expect plenty more of them, and whatever else comes out of the region, as publishers and developers are going to be making more and more games for the region that will likely make their way to the west too. Digi-Capital is predicting not a lot of turnover: expect to see Candy Crush Saga (Free), Clash of Clans (Free), and Game of War (Free) topping the charts for years to come, according to Digi-Capital.
If anything, I don’t think that this report is bullish enough on mobile. It’s easy to see where big-name publishers could make a bigger effort on mobile. Look at something like Injustice (Free) – there is a game that’s bringing in significant revenue years after release on a daily basis for NetherRealm, and they’ve got something new going with Mortal Kombat X (Free). Those games have high production values and are designed for what mobile gamers want. It’s not hard to see where other publishers could start to shift more resources to there, seeing how lucrative of a revenue stream mobile can be if you do it right and don’t treat the platform like a second-class citizen. Those games are simplified, but they fit mobile perfectly.
As well, there’s the potential for mobile to break through into consoles if Apple ever does anything with Apple TV. Steam could have a breakthrough with Steam Machines, and with the rise of indie games that don’t require the latest and greatest hardware to run. Sony could easily shift into being just a streaming games provider at some point. Microsoft could someday decide the Xbox isn’t worth the time any more. Nintendo might either be holding ship with the console market or be a mobile-first company once they see all the billions pour in from their mobile games. And more billion-dollar mobile games could be made, especially if Game of War proves that a well-monetized game and a lot of marketing dollars can build you up a huge success.
And unfortunately for some of the premium gaming fans out there, it’s likely going to be free-to-play that makes mobile get bigger. It’s becoming the norm over the world, and has been common in Asian territories for a long time now. Perhaps a healthy niche could be carved out, but as the gaming market gets ever more crowded, only expect more and more free-to-play games. And I don’t know if consoles will properly receive the audience that increasingly doesn’t want – or need – to pay up front for games. And that could be where mobile picks up the slack.
