How to estimate revenue in top lists

Discussion in 'Public Game Developers Forum' started by frankywhite, Sep 12, 2012.

  1. frankywhite

    frankywhite Member

    Sep 8, 2012
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    I need to make a business plan and im thinking like this.
    Im gonna release 6games

    2 will fail :(
    2will be ok
    1will be good
    1will be great

    How would this be trandlated into top ranking positions?
    And estimated value during a year?
    Is there a place were you can actually see this figures?

    What else do i need to think about when doi g a business plan regarding the potential revenue of thenew games?
     
  2. Syndicated Puzzles

    Syndicated Puzzles Well-Known Member

    Franky,

    Planning for success on the app store in the games category is very similar to buying used lottery tickets that someone else has already checked if the tickets were winners or not.

    Try following equation to be closer to reality. Very simple math

    6 apps at 8 dollars a day x 30 days

    1440,- a month that is probably too generous
     
  3. Blackharon

    Blackharon Well-Known Member

    Mar 15, 2010
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    Canada
    #3 Blackharon, Sep 12, 2012
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2012
    Your chart is probably off, maybe not if you're super lucky/great at what you do.

    To answer your question CSR racing was hovering between 1st and 10th top grossing on most of the App Stores and they announced making 12 million dollars per month. For 1 year, if they can hold that place, it looks something around 144 million dollars.

    You can see those numbers here: http://www.theverge.com/2012/8/15/3244774/ios-csr-racing-earning-millions-monthly


    You don't mention what you're currently considering as revenue sources. What you should be looking at looking at the average a game makes instead of the average a top game makes. Decide if you could live with that income as part of your business plan. If not, rethink stepping into the market.

    Here's where you can start reading that info. It's old, but that part of the market hasn't changed much. http://www.tuaw.com/2011/09/29/ios-game-revenue-survey-50-of-app-store-games-make-less-than/
     
  4. lazypeon

    lazypeon Well-Known Member

    I think the real challenge with the App Store isn't getting a top 10 game (especially for a given category), but actually sustaining the ranking. Most iOS games have an explosive beginning as the eager public checks out the newest stuff. After that, unless you get really lucky, you app will drop off into a handful of sells a day.

    It's a little misleading to think about sales in terms of 'sales per year', when the bulk of your sales probably come in the first couple weeks, if not days.

    For what it's worth, I've hit the top ~30 Arcade and top 10 RPG (both very easy feats), which amounted to a couple hundred sales per day. Both games lasted about 1-2 weeks before the sales dropped off VERY quickly.
     
  5. Blackharon

    Blackharon Well-Known Member

    Mar 15, 2010
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    I'm assuming you mean the paid charts in those categories? Mostly because I'm interested in these stats.
     
  6. lazypeon

    lazypeon Well-Known Member

    Yeah, that's for paid games.
     
  7. frankywhite

    frankywhite Member

    Sep 8, 2012
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    #7 frankywhite, Sep 12, 2012
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2012
    thanks for the tips, Could of have been a bit optimistic

    blackharon those are great links thanks a lot, csr racing killed it!
    I suppose the one regarding the avarage revenue from an app is for paid app as it was from last year.

    Have you seen any similar for free-to-play apps ?
     
  8. ChaoticBox

    ChaoticBox Well-Known Member

    Oct 8, 2008
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    I'd say so. Actual reality: I have 6 apps on the store averaging $5 a day (total, not each). Granted, one of them is a useless freebie.
     
  9. MrBlue

    MrBlue Well-Known Member

    Sep 3, 2008
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    iPhone Developer
    Seriously? That can't be right. Silverfish alone should bring you more than that.
     
  10. ChaoticBox

    ChaoticBox Well-Known Member

    Oct 8, 2008
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    Toronto Canada
    Silverfish + Silverfish MAX sell 4-12 copies a week combined. Only game of mine that consistently sells a couple copies a day is Match Panic, but even that has had a few $0 days in the past couple months.
     
  11. Ovogame

    Ovogame Well-Known Member

    Sep 25, 2010
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    Morestel, France
    You must be doing something wrong... You should earn way more than that.

    JC
     
  12. ChaoticBox

    ChaoticBox Well-Known Member

    Oct 8, 2008
    877
    5
    18
    Male
    Developer
    Toronto Canada
    Well, I keep making games for one thing :D
     
  13. Ovogame

    Ovogame Well-Known Member

    Sep 25, 2010
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    Morestel, France
    So true :)

    JC
     

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