So, how big will Super Mario Run [Free] end up being? Well, according to Tokyo-based game consultant Serkan Toto, the game might generate at least one billion downloads globally in its entire lifecycle. While he isn't saying that one billion players will end up paying to unlock the full content, that's still a lot of downloads and a lot of iPhone players playing a Mario game. That would put it at double the number of current Pokemon GO downloads, which in itself was record breaking. It's safe to say, then, that Nintendo is destined to make quite a bit of money from the portly plumber even if a fraction of those one billion players ends up paying to unlock the full game.

This optimism is shared by investors as seen by the 13% jump in Nintendo shares in Tokyo trading. And this jump is expected to stick around, unlike the very temporary share jump when Pokemon GO firsts came out. I hope that Super Mario Run makes an obscene amount of money for Nintendo so we can get even more Nintendo games on iOS in addition to the ones already announced. Here's hoping.



  • Pocket Master

    Better than Pokemon Go. I can almost guarantee it!

    • Bliquid

      I don't know.
      As a game, almost surely yes.
      As a mediatic storm/cultural happening, not so much.
      I think the age range for a platformer is smaller than the one for an app that makes you walk and talk to people and basically doesn't need any skill at all.

      • elia

        You need skill man what about the curveball lol

  • Oats

    Mama Mia!

  • dayvid

    ??? unlock the full content? it won't be free it will be one price for everything like they said at the keynote...unless I'm mistaken?

    • brantov

      ... it will be free to download/try/play some 'demo' levels. than you have to choose buy the full game via IAP or not.

      • dayvid

        ohh ok

      • Milotorou

        that actually goes with nintendo's initial "free to start" mentality.

        a one time full unlock iap, im all good with this.

        in a way its even better thsn straight up pricepoint, at least you can try the product to make sure you like what youll buy

      • Stetch

        Totally agree!

  • ThePawn

    Maybe a secret surprise where you unlock a traditional Mario platformer game would be real nice.

  • robotkirby

    Is there a time frame for release yet?

    • ste86uk

      December

  • Earth Vs. Me

    Wouldn't be surprised if Apple and Nintendo strike a deal where a "light" version Super Mario Run comes pre-installed on every iPhone.

  • Zaraf

    The nice thing is now that they are expecting the game to be a big hit, they're going to put the right manpower behind it to ensure that all the bugs and problems with it are addressed before release. Pokemon go was a surprise hit for them, and they weren't prepared for the tidal wave that came resulting in all of the launch problems. Hopefully this will be much smoother.

    • http://www.deltaattack.com/ Fade to Slack

      That wasn't Nintendo. They had nothing to do with Pokemon Go, though they did profit off of it by being partial owners of the Pokemon Company.

      This is a straight-forward runner with platforming along the lines of Zombie Parkour Runner.

  • Eoin

    This is gonna make Nintendo a lot of money.
    I hope to see some new Zelda games move to mobile - with MFi controller support 🙂
    A Link Between Worlds would be very nice on my iPad.

  • http://www.threeboy.net threeboy

    Seems like it was the first game Nintendo should have made but whatevs

  • DemoEvolved

    Guys. Guys. If you want to play high quality runners right now, check out Joe Danger, Joe Danger Infinity, and Mega Run. They are all very good. Out of those I would say Joe Danger Infinity is the most fun.

  • Niall

    When I press NOTIFY it tells me my iPhone5 is not compatible with the game!

    • Irenmon

      Ye pretty bullshit this kind of game needs iPhone 5s and higher

    • brantov

      strange, NOTIFY button works fine for my iP5. i get this message: "You are ALL SET. We tell you bla-bla."

  • Sarusig Musicman

    Based on what? Or is that just based on the gratuitous quote that one guy made just to be picked up by media outlets? Yeah Mario is a big license, but where is that figure coming from? Is there even a semblance of reflection behind it?

    • http://toucharcade.com Eli Hodapp

      We're not just pulling some random quote out of a hat, 2: are sourcing one of the best and most consistently reliable Nintendo analysts.

      • Sarusig Musicman

        Sure, but what is HIS analysis based on? Just an argument of authority? I'd rather know why someone is saying something before just accepting it blindly because it comes from a "reliable source", especially when we are making predictions.
        Don't get me wrong, I'm not criticizing TA here, I'm more asking if anyone has any idea where this stuff is coming from? Because that would be really interesting to know.

  • Devok

    Yay Nintendo ports! Plz send, n64 and so on.

  • Rothgarr

    Apple should just buy Nintendo now...

  • Joshua Woodward

    I can only be notified, can't download...

    • blueknight1st

      Ummm....

      That would be because it's not available yet. 🙄

  • rewind

    LOL. The game could reach a billion downloads. Sure. But on what basis is the guy making that statement? He might be a very accurate Nintendo analyst, but what's his track record with mobile games? Eli, you're more well-equipped than this guy when it comes to guessing how many downloads this'll get. Personally I don't think it'll get more downloads than Pokemon Go. It can't turn into the same kind of sensation.

    • http://toucharcade.com Eli Hodapp

      No I'm not, Serkan Toto is ridiculously well connected and accurate. It's unbelievable.

  • tinkie277

    This is really exciting, they are really looking after gamers with this concept... we all are fed up with F2P and it's a breath of fresh air knowing that this killer title will be a premium experience.